RIPPLE SALVO… #843… BOMBING TO WIN: AIR POWER AND COERCION IN WAR, author Robert A. Pape’s argument that “airpower is no ‘magic bullet’ nor a way to win inexpensively.” The flyleaf asks: Can air bombardment break the morale of an enemy and force it to capitulate or does it strengthen the enemy’s determination to resist? Professor Pape doesn’t sugar-coat his analysis and conclusion for Operation Rolling Thunder… but first…
GOOD MORNING… Day EIGHT HUNDRED FORTY-THREE of a return to the years 1965 to 1 November 1968 and the air war over North Vietnam…
HEAD LINES from The New York Times on a rainy Wednesday, 26 June 1968 in New York…
THE WAR: Page 1: “FIVE U.S. COPTERS CRASH IN VIETNAM–DEATH TOLL OF 36 INCLUDES 19 AMERICANS–2 CRAFT COLLIDE AND ONE IS SHOT DOWN”… “Five United States Army helicopters crashed in the scrub jungle surrounding Saigon yesterday and today killing 36 persons…. two of the aircraft collided this morning as they carried troops through cloudy skies for a combat assault 16 miles east of Saigon. The collision set off fan explosion, and fragments from the blast brought down a third troop helicopter. A fourth plunged into the Nhabe River nine miles southeast of Saigon yesterday. Five soldiers were killed…Three battalions of the Ninth Infantry Division pressed the North Vietnamese toward the river while a fourth battalion landed from helicopters behind the enemy to prevent an escape across the waterway. But as darkness set in the North Vietnamese began to slip away in groups of 2 or 3. The Americans said they shot 12 North Vietnamese as they attempted to escape bringing to 87 the total number of enemy soldiers killed in the area in three days. Seven Americans were killed and 16 wounded in the fighting….No major fighting was reported elsewhere in South Vietnam.”… Page 3: “SAIGON TO INCREASE FORCES TO 800,000″… “…this would be an increase of 135,000 in those scheduled to be called up under a new general mobilization law.”… Page 2: “SPOTTERS AT DMZ INSIST FOE IS USING HELICOPTERS”…
PEACE TALKS: nary a word…
Page 1: “TRUDEAU IS VICTOR IN CANADIAN VOTE; MARGIN DECISIVE–Liberal Party Will Form The First Majority Government In Country Since 1962–Stanfield Keeps seat–Promises a Vigorous And Informed Opposition–Tories Lose Quebec”… Page 17: “TWO SENATORS AGAIN ASK A UNILATERAL TROOP CUT IN EUROPE”… “Two Democratic Senators called again today for a prompt unilateral of American troops in Europe. they said the United States was unreasonable in expecting the Soviet Union to negotiate mutual reduction of forces. The move by Stuart Symington of Missouri and Mike Mansfield of Montana came as the United States and other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization called on the Soviet Union to study the prospects of balanced reduction of forces.”... Page 1: “ABERNATHY GETS 20-DAY JAIL TERM-CAPITAL CALMER–Leader of Poor Enters Plea Of No Contest to Charge of Unlawful Assembly”… “…for leading a nonviolent protest by the Poor People’s Campaign to the Capital yesterday. It was the Negro leader’s 20th jail term for protest activity.:-“… Page 15: “PALOMARES TO GET U.S. GIFT OF DESALTING PLANT–Goodwill Gesture Will Help Area Where Atom Bombs Dropped In Accident”…
STATE DEPARTMENT. Office of Historian. Historical Documents. Foreign Relations. 1964-68 Vietnam. Four documents dated 25 and 26 June 1968 of note addressing the peace talks and the bombing of North Vietnam. Document 282 are the notes from the Tuesday Lunch Bunch and the conversation is interesting. Doc 283 is a product of the discussions at the Tuesday Lunch meeting and provides guidance to Harriman and Vance in Paris via the Embassy for their use at the weekly Peace Talks the next day (Wednesday). Doc 284 is a “buck sheet” from Walt Rostow to his boss the President with the highlights of the Paris Meeting. Doc 285 is a long record of a secret off-site meeting between Vance and Lau… This is where the work gets done… you will need a cup of coffee for this one… read at…
D. 282… https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v06/d282
D. 283… https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v06/d283
D. 284… https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v06/d284
D. 285… https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v06/d285
26 JUNE 1968… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER…New York Times (27 June reporting 26 June ops) Page 3: “In North Vietnam, United States pilots flew 128 missions, attacking trucks, supply boats, bridges and storage areas. Anti-aircraft fire was described as moderate to heavy…
VIETNAM: AIR LOSSES (Chris Hobson) There were two fixed wing aircraft lost in Southeast Asia on 26 June 1968…
(1) MAJOR ROBERT F. WOODS and 1LT JOHNNIE C. CORNELIUS were flying an O-2A of the 20th TASS and 504th TASG on a FAC mission two miles north of the DMZ in North Vietnam. MAJOR WOODS was in a 45-degree dive to mark a target when hit by ground fire. The aircraft continued in the dive into the ground killing the two intrepid warriors. Their remains were recovered from the battlefield and returned to the United States in October 2004. They were positively identified in 2007, CAPTAIN WOODS in February and 1LT CORNELIUS in May… They are remembered with admiration and respect on this 50th anniversary of their ultimate sacrifice for our country…
(2) An F-105D of the 34th TFS and 388th TFW out of Korat sheared a starboard main landing gear on a landing at Korat returning from a strike mission. The unidentified pilot survived to fly and fight again…
SUMMARY OF ROLLING THUNDER LOSSES (KIA/MIA/POW) ON 26 JUNE FOR THE FOUR YEARS OF THE OPERATION OVER NORTH VIETNAM…
1965… NONE…
1966… NONE…
1967… NONE…
1968… MAJOR ROBERT F. WOODS, USAF… (KIA)… and 1LT JOHNNIE C. CORNELIUS, USAF… (KIA)…
Humble Host flew #202… The gunners in and around Vinh all had and took a final opportunity to put a hole in my trusty A-4F Skyhawk. They got nothing but air, while I got one more bridge in the company of three other Stingers… And away we go… Thank you, Jesus…
(Webmaster note: This mission marked the end of Bear Taylor’s second combat tour to the Vietnam theatre)
RIPPLE SALVO… #843… In BOMBING TO WIN: Air Power and Coercion to Win, Robert A. Pape presents a report card for all those brave warriors who executed Operation Rolling Thunder that is blunt: “the North Vietnamese were not coerced.” Not only that, his analysis includes this conclusion: “The failure of Rolling Thunder extended the war by four years, during which approximately twenty thousand Americans and hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese lost their lives…” The Professor also concludes that the “success of the Linebacker bombings finally enabled the United States to escape the unpopular war.”… He wrote (Pages 174-5)…
“The American bombing of Vietnam is a classic example of conventional coercion. Unable or unwilling to commit the ground forces necessary to win decisively in the South, the United States attempted to compel Hanoi to alter its behavior by using powerful air forces to bypass the battlefield and strike directly at North Vietnam. The aim was to force Hanoi to cease supporting the insurgency in the South and to enter serious negotiations for peace between North and South Vietnam. The United States two major series of bombing campaigns against North Vietnam, Lyndon Johnson’s Rolling Thunder from 1965 to 1968, which failed, and Richard Nixon’s Freedom Train and Linebacker campaigns in 1972, which succeeded in forcing concessions….
“Although the bombing of the North has generated heated debate on many different dimensions, my task is to explain why American coercive efforts succeeded or failed. In fact, the air war against North Vietnam is the most studied case of conventional coercion. The most extreme position holds the coercion is likely to fail under almost any set of circumstances. Another group contend that coercion succeeds only when powerful ultimatums are issued under political, military and diplomatic circumstances that all favor the assailant. Still another sees the major obstacle to success as excessive civilian control over military operations. Contrary to these views, the air war against North Vietnam suggests that success is possible, but that the critical leverage in conventional coercion comes from exploiting the vulnerabilities in the opponent’s military strategy, not from threats or cost to civilians.
“The principal goals of the first major bombing campaign, Rolling Thunder, which ran from 2 March 1965 through 31 October 1968, were to coerce the North Vietnamese into halting the infiltration of men and supplies into South Vietnam and entering into peace negotiations. In pursuit of these aims, Rolling Thunder inflicted costs and risks primarily on civilians. Military targets were also bombed, but these attacks had little effect on Hanoi’s military strategy, because the guerrilla campaign being fought in this period was largely immune to conventional air attack. As a result, the North Vietnamese were not coerced.”… Humble Host feels like Rodney Dangerfield… “get no respect.”… I’ll get back to Professor Pape later…
RTR for 26 June 1968: ADMIRAL CHESTER NIMITZ: “They fought together as brothers-in-arms. They died together and now they sleep side-by-side. To them we have a solemn obligation.”…
Lest we forget… Bear