RIPPLE SALVO… #237… WHAT SHOULD WE BOMB NEXT?… but first…

Good Morning: Day TWO HUNDRED THIRTY-SEVEN of an opportunity for those of us who came home to remember those who did not…

25 OCTOBER 1966… HEADLINES AND NOTES FROM THE New York Times… On a Tuesday under clearing skies in New York…

Page 1: “Ky Tells Six Allies At Manila Talks Civil Rule Is Near”…”Premier Nguyen Cao Ky promised his six military allies at the Manila conference today that South Vietnam would press a program of economic and political reform including the creation soon of a truly representative government to replace the present military junta. He also said his government is intensifying a program to encourage enemy defections through offers of amnesty and jobs or safe conduct to the North. President Johnson immediately commented that he was ‘very encouraged’ by the Ky pledge. He also promised to display the firmness and strength that he said was needed to persuade North Vietnam to conclude the acceptable peace. President Johnson expressed confidence that peace will come from the unity and determination shown here by the leaders of seven nations who have contributed militarily to the war. It may come at a conference through secret diplomacy or simply by North Vietnam’s decision to quit. When that day comes,’ the President said,’ it is obvious that the hand 0f reconciliation reaching out from this conference will help former enemies to learn to live together.’…President Johnson, as the last speaker, was said to have summarized an ’emerging agreement’ around four principles: resistance to aggression; reconstruction of the Vietnamese nation; regional cooperation for defense; and, development and reconciliation with former enemies. President Johnson in the afternoon session said ‘the most important conviction of the conference would be to let the world know that the nations directly assisting the people of South Vietnam are resolute.’…”…Page 1: “3 Neutral Nations Ask Bombing Halt”…”The leaders of India, Yugoslavia and the United Arab Republic called on the United States today to ‘stop the bombing of North Vietnam immediately without any preconditions.’…The three leaders also called for implementation of the 1954 Geneva agreements and the withdrawal of all foreign forces to enable the Vietnamese people to ‘decide their future for themselves, free from all the externals.’ The three nations also called for inclusion of the National Liberation Front in all talks.”…

Page 1: “Army May Widen Recruits Choices”…”The Army has devised a plan expected to be welcomed by many young men on the verge of the draft. At present time men liable for military service have a rather limited range of options. But under the new Army plan, just forwarded to the office of the Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara for approval, youths seeking specialist training while in service would have a new opportunity. They could if the program is adopted remain as civilians up to 120 days while they wait for a vacancy to occur to their preferred Army training program. To keep the draft board at arm’s length during the waiting period the men would be enlisted in the Army Reserve. But they would attend no0 meetings, wear no uniforms and receive no pay. Under present procedures men facing a military call can wait to be  drafted for two years of active duty. Then they would have no choice over whether they are trained as riflemen, truck drivers or clerks.”…

Page 8: “Laotian Pro-Reds Advance On Town.”…”Pro-Communists troops profited by the disruption of the Royal Laotian Air Force by launching a small scale attack near Luang Prabang, the royal capital yesterday. The rightwing military commander in the area called fighter-bomber support after enemy forces advanced…but no planes could be sent…because the Air Force was in disarray following the desertion of about one-third of the pilots last week. The pilots, eleven in all, fled to sanctuary in Thailand after some of them raided Government military installations in the Vientiane area…The Air Force’s back bone is the score of American made T-28 propeller driven planes. Military analysts give the planes and their pilots much of the credit for having pushed back the pro-communist forces until now. They control about 40-per cent of Laos. Two years ago they controlled 60-per cent. Now the Royal Laotian Air Force has lost some of its most skilled and experienced pilots. The loss is particularly ominous because the Pathet Lao forces and North Vietnamese troops aiding them are expected to become more active here now that the dry season is beginning. The rainy season ended last month… The Pathet Lao has about 25,000 troops allied with about 15,000 North Vietnamese troops in the country. The right wing army has about 60,000 troops and the neutralists about 10,000. Neither neutralists or pro-communists were involved in last weeks mutiny.”

25 OCTOBER 1966… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER… NYT (26 Oct reporting 25 Oct ops) Page 22: “U.S. Plane Toll Rises to 545″…”The number of United States planes lost in five years of the Vietnam War rose to 540 today with the disclosure of two more plane loses. The United States command also reported a total of 216 American helicopters lost.”… “Vietnam: Air Losses” (Hobson) There were no fixed wing aircraft losses in Southeast Asia on 25 October 1966… ooohrah

RIPPLE SALVO… #237… On 8 August 1966 CINCPAC Admiral Sharp submitted a target list and plan for the execution of Rolling Thunder 52. The RT 51 plan to destroy NVN’s petroleum storage and transportation capabilities didn’t get the job done. Back to the drawing boards. So Admiral Sharp upped the targets to add back all the targets that had been on RT 51 but subsequently scrubbed by the President and Secretary McNamara– “too close to people and the Soviets might be camping at Phuc Yen, so that’s out of bounds. Kep, too. And no mining, either.” So, with RT52 on the drawing boards, Sharp said escalate. On 7 Sept McNamara and Secretary of State Dean Rusk decided that there would be no new targeting that appeared to, or might appear as, escalation. At this point McNamara had concluded that “bombing North Vietnam to induce a comprehensive settlement gained results in inverse proportion to its intensity: the more bombing, the less possibility of negotiations.” Therefore, SecDef and State had their heels dug in and the Joint Chiefs took “sharp objection.”. On 14 October McNamara was back form his trip to Vietnam.

“On 15 October the President, Vice President Humphrey, McNamara, Vance and General Wheeler gathered to discuss the differences between the JCS and McNamara  over the future course of the war. Wheeler thought Johnson favorably disposed toward Rolling Thunder 52, although some of the proposed targets…gave the President ‘great difficulties.’ Decision time?

The following is quoted from Edward Drea’s “McNamara, Clifford and the Burdens of Vietnam,” page 79…

“At a session on 15 October…Johnson still opposed reducing the number of sanctuaries around Hanoi and Haiphong but would hit a few targets despite McNamara’s advice to scale back the bombing campaign. Wheeler instructed Westmoreland to emphasize the importance of the air campaign against North Vietnam when he met with the President during the forthcoming Manila conference and at Cam Ranh Bay in South Vietnam during the latter’s 23 October-2 November Asian trip.

“Westmoreland subsequently forwarded his recommendations for a change in strategy through Rostow. The MACV commander called for removal of current off-limits zones around Hanoi and Haiphong and permission to strike enemy air bases. He also reiterated what he had already told the President during his visit in August to the LBJ Ranch–pause or no pause, keep on bombing in the southern panhandle of North Vietnam to divert and debilitate enemy manpower and resources and disrupt enemy plans for a thrust en masse across the DMZ. The Joint Chiefs and Sharp chimed in, insisting the time had come to hit the enemy harder, not relax the pressure. On Johnson’s return to the capital the JCS urged McNamara to brief him, with Wheeler present, on the rationale for reducing restrictions on attacks against additional POL storage, ports, power plants, waterway locks and SAM support facilities around Hanoi and Haiphong.

A somewhat disparate CIA analysis of Rolling Thunder for the first nine months of 1966 supported escalation. Its summary declared that the cost-effectiveness of the campaign had diminished in 1966 despite the escalated bombing. Not only had the North Vietnamese continued to expand their support for the insurgency, they had also improved their overall capability to support the war effort because increased Chinese and Soviet military and economic aid had more than offset bombing losses. The body of the paper, however, reasoned that concentrated, repeated air attacks on target complexes, mining of principal North Vietnamese seaports, and bombing currently restricted targets–some 35 per cent of all JCS-nominated targets–could inflict greater damage and create greater fear among Hanoi’s leaders without providing Communist intervention.

“The latter policy debate over the air war pitted the Joint Chiefs and Rostow, who with certain exceptions favored the expanded bombing campaign, against McNamara and Rusk, who agreed to some but not dramatic escalation. Johnson meanwhile postponed any decision until after the November 8 midterm congressional elections.”

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Fifty years ago today ROLLING THUNDER 52 was stalled on the drawing board in the Tuesday Luncheon coat room at the White House… Meanwhile, at Yankee Station: “steaming as before.” No big deal, the weather would remain rotten through 1966 and remain that way until February 1967…

Lest we forget…      Bear                ……….  –30–  ……….