RIPPLE SALVO… #626… JAMES RESTON questions the basis of the optimism of the honchos in Saigon… and a document from the BOGSAT at the White House you might want to take a look at… but first…
Good Morning: Day SIX HUNDRED TWENTY-SIX of a look back to the future…the lessons of the Vietnam war and Rolling Thunder and the 1960s in the United States that might find a place in 2017 or so…
22 NOVEMBER 1967… HEAD LINES from The New York Times on a very wet Wednesday…
Page 1: “Senate Unit Sees War Power Peril–Report Urges Congress To Reassert Authority Over Commitment of Troops”… “The Senate Foreign Relations Committee warned today that the near absolute power acquired by the President to commit the nation to war threatened the American people with ‘tyranny or disaster.”… Page 1: “Israeli Jets Raid Posts In Jordan–One of Craft Crossing River For First Time Since War Is Downed–Tanks Are Hit”… “Israeli jet fighters crossed the Jordan River for the firt time since the June war and knocked out Jordanian tanks firing from the east bank. The Israeli pilot ejected but was reported killed.”… Page 3: “January’s Draft Doubled By U.S.–Call For 34,000 Shows Need to Replace Returning G.I.’s“… “The Defense Department called today for a January draft of 34,000 men, signalling a series of higher induction quotas in 1968 to replace returning Vietnam veterans. The January call was nearly double the 18,200 scheduled to be inducted into the Army in December.”… Page 1: “U.S. Troops Take Top of Hill 875–Defy Fierce Fire–Flame Throwers Are Used Against Foe’s Last Line on Peak Near Dakto.”…
President’s Daily Brief… CYPRUS: Time appears to be running out for peace on the island. Although feverish diplomatic efforts to defuse the critical situation continue in Athens and Ankara, the Turkish war machine–already in a high state of readiness–is being geared both to move rapidly into Cyrus and to respond to any countermove by Greek forces… The Greeks and Greek Cypriots remain determined, despite Turkish military superiority, to resist any Turkish military move... ISRAEL-JORDAN: Jordan’s interest in discouraging terrorism along its borders has been shaken by the artillery pouncing it got from Israel Monday....NORTH VIETNAM: The main rice crop now being harvested looks as if it will be below average. A combination of bad weather and disruptions brought on by bombing is responsible… HANOI REFLECTIONS ON US POLITICAL ATTITUDES: Hanoi broadcast encourages Negroes to desert. Radio broadcasts in English to US troops in South Vietnam encourages Negro GIs to “rise up and oppose this Johnson war.” Hanoi asserts that there are no reasons to justify Negroes fighting in Vietnam since “the Johnson Administration does nothing good for Negroes…. The best way for the Negro GI is to let himself be taken prisoner rather than be killed.”
22 November 1967… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER… New York Times…devoid of coverage of the air war… “Vietnam: Air Losses” (Chris Hobson) There were no fixed wing aircraft downed in Southeast Asia on 22 November 1967…:
MAJOR BUD SUMMERS of the 44th TFS (F-105s, Korat) made a logbook note that explains the day: “Wed–Mission #77 was an air abort from Pack 6 due to weather. We wound up radar bombing in Pack 1. The weather was solid from the ground up to 33,000-feet”…. And this from MAJOR SAM ARMSTRONG of the 34th TFS (F-105s, Korat) on his 25th mission echoes bombing conditions in NVN in his 100-Mission Log: “…programmed strike on a rail line 6 miles northeast of Hanoi…We were first delayed for 3 hours waiting for the weather up there to clear. We took off finally and got almost to the tankers over the water, when the word came to abort the mission into Pack VI because of weather. We refueled and proceeded all of the way back up into northern Laos (300 miles) and when the FAC ran out of gas we dropped in the ‘Fish’s Mouth’ (safe jettison area)… ” …the Northeast Monsoon was in full bloom… (thanks Howie Plunkett)
RIPPLE SALVO #626… NYT, 22 Nov, Page 44: James Reston column: “WHY WESTMORELAND AND AMBASSADOR BUNKER ARE OPTIMISTIC”….
“General Westmoreland and Ambassador Bunker have made a good case for their optimism sincere turning here from Vietnam, provided you accept the assumption on which the case rests. They have been effective witnesses because they are serious, attractive and well-informed men–as good as anything we have in the military and diplomatic services of the United States. They have been careful in their estimates, modest in their manner, and as factual as anybody can be in reporting on such a complicated was with so many different fronts.
“Their conclusion is that the United States and its allies are steadily wearing down the enemy at the present level of force and supply of both sides, and their assumption is that the Soviet Union, China and the rest of the Communist world will not provide the additional weapons and men necessary to restore the military balance that is now going against Hanoi and the Vietcong.
“The evidence they offer on the first point is persuasive. They are privately critical of past U.S. intelligence estimates made by an American officer who has been transferred to another post and confident about the intelligence estimates they are now getting from his replacement, but leaving this personal question aside, their latest figures are hopeful.
THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATES…
“1. In June of 1966, they observe, Hanoi sent 14,000 men from the North into South Vietnam. This was the peak. The infiltration is now down to between 5,000 and 6,000 a month.
“2. Hanoi has large reserves of trained and organized units in the North, but they are not committing them to the battle fast enough to win a single major engagement with the U.S. forces. They could do so despite the U.S. air attacks. Westmoreland and Bunker assert, but something is holding them back from committing their reserves in effective numbers.
“3. The Communist sea-borne supplies to the South have been seriously interrupted in recent months, and this has hampered the offensive power of the enemy, slowed down his capability to recruit guerrilla forces in the South and hurt his morale.
“4. This is now showing up in the increasing numbers of enemy defectors, in the capture of very young and even middle aged enemy recruits, many of them without adequate military training, and in the marked willingness of civilians in disputed areas to provide military intelligence.
“5. Finally, the Vietcong now control only 2,500,000 people out of a total of 17.2 million in South Vietnam–down from 4,000,000 in mid-1965. And according to the latest estimates here, Vietcong recruitment in the South has dropped from 7,500 to about 3,600 a month in the last twelve months.
“This is what Westmoreland and Bunker mean by ‘steady progress.’ The war, they estimate, is now further along toward a conclusion than the World War was after Normandy and the Korean War was after MacArthur’s Inchon landing, and the official conclusion is that it is now merely a matter of time until this trend forces the not to negoatiate but to fade away intothe jungle,
“Assuming all this is as accurate as any military estimate can be in such a war, what of the assumption? Will Moscow and Peking merely stand aside and allow the Communist forces in the field to be decimated and dispersed?
“The official optimism here is based on the belief that they will. It is conceded here that the Soviets and the Chinese have the weapons and the ‘volunteers’ to restore the balance if they wish to take the risk.
MEN AND MISSILES
“For example, they have missiles which could knock out the American air fields at Danang, Saigon and Thailand, and even harass the U.S. aircraft carriers in the South China Sea, but this would really be ‘escalation’ that would probably lead to the mining of Haiphong harbor or worse. The Administration does not believe Moscow and Peking are prepared for a escalation of this sort, which could easily get out of control. But who knows? The debate goes on here, not because anybody questions the sincerity or even the evidence of General Westmoreland and Ambassador Bunker, but simply because men differ in their estimates of what the Russians and Chinese will do.
“Accordingly, both sides in the debate here are guessing. They are operating on different assumptions about what the Soviet Union and Communist China will do if the administration’s optimism is correct, and the answer to that is not available here but only in Moscow and Peking.”
Humble Host notes that Writer Reston could have benefited mightily by attendance at the November 21 meeting of the President’s “Saigon Advisors” at the White House… The notes on that meeting are included here for those interested in some enlightening White House BOGSAT conversation… Rolling Thunder gt a mention, as it almost always does… (e.g. Press: “The President asked about the increase in the number of planes lost. ‘I am beginning to agree with Bob McNamara that it does not appear the targets are worth the loss of planes'” … and… “The President emphasized ‘the clock is ticking.’ … ‘Get the targets you have to hit. The bombing arouses so much opposition in the country.’..” Good stuff, if you have the time…
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v05/d409
RTR Quote for 22 November 1967: BOGSAT, Pentagonese: “BUNCH OF GUYS SITTING AROUND A TABLE”…
Lest we forget… Bear