RIPPLE SALVO… #203… ROLLING THUNDER GETS A…. D+…
Good Morning: Day TWO HUNDRED THREE of a return to 1965-68 and Operation Rolling Thunder…
20 SEPTEMBER 1966…THE FRONT PAGE NEWS FROM THE NYT… A cloudy, cool and rainy Tuesday in Manhattan…
Page 1: “Pope Paul Directs A Cry For Peace To World Leaders”… ” ‘We cry to them in God’s name to stop.’ That plea was made by Pope Paul VI to world leaders involved in the war in Vietnam. The appeal was delivered, as the Pope said in a Biblical reference, ‘with piercing cry and with tears,’ and was contained in a 1700-word encyclical letter to the world Roman Catholic hierarchy and faithful. The Pontiff used stronger language than in any of his previous peace appeals to point to the peril of a more extensive and more disastrous calamity that endangers the human family…particularly in East Asia. The encyclical pleaded for a peace settlement now ‘even at the expense of some inconvenience or loss, for it may have to be made later in the train of bitter slaughter and involve greater loss.’ But the Pontiff did not ask for peace at any price. A lasting peace, he wrote must rest in justice and the liberty of mankind, and take into account the rights of individuals and communities.”…
Page 1: “U.S, Shifts Stand On Peking Charge“…”The United States acknowledged today that American planes might have intruded inadvertently over Communist China twice this month. The State Department expressed regret over such intrusions that might have occurred and emphasized that American pilots were under orders to avoid China’s air space.”… Page 1: “6 Die, 23 Wounded As G.I.s Are Hit By American Fire”…”Six American soldiers were killed and 23 wounded in three combat accidents early today and yesterday. In two of the incidents artillery shells fell short of their targets, killing a total of three soldiers of the 196th light Infantry Brigade and wounding 19. In a third incident a stray bomb killed three marines and injured four. A marine pilot was asked to drop bombs 200 yards in front of the marines. The commander then asked the pilot to make another pass 100 yards closer. A forward air controller dropped a smoke to mark the new target area for the jet. The pilot came in right on target. He put his bomb right where he was supposed to.”… Page 1: “Rights Bill Dies As Closure Fails”…”The Senate killed today all hope for fair-housing legislation in this session of Congress when it refused for the second time in a week to shut off debate on the Administration’s civil rights bill. The vote was 52 to 41, ten short of the two thirds majority required to end a filibuster. Civil rights leaders were critical of the Senate. They described the action as ‘a surrender to wrong, a blow to American Negroes, and an incitement to racial trouble.’…If President Johnson wants a bill, he will have to submit it again next year and be prepared to go through the entire legislative process in both houses of Congress. Attaching blame, Senator Mansfield said, ‘What ever blame there is attached to us all.’ …”
Page 1: “Housing Equality Hits A Raw Nerve”…”The postal clerk, an earnest young man with a days growth of beard, straightened from work on his small lawn and cast a proprietary glance down the street of modest brick houses. ‘Most of the people on this block own their own homes. We keep them up, too. The thing about it is that when a colored family moves in the neighborhood, the value of our property goes down. That is just how it is.’ As do many other wage earner whites across the country he sharply rejects the thought of open housing and forecasts instant trouble if Negroes move in. In Chicago and suburban Cicero, marching advocates of fair housing for Negroes encountered jeering, bottle-throwing, swarms of white toughs screaming ‘white power.’ …’It would be the same here, as it was in Chicago,’ said the postal clerk. ‘You can’t push it down our throats. It is just going to take a long time,’ and he stretched out the ‘long’ to make it sound like never.”… Page 1: “Work Load Spurs Welfare Protests”…”Caseworkers dumped thousands of folders on the desks of Administrators at 15 of tne city’s welfare centers yesterday contending that the files were in esxcess of the 60 to be processed for each worker under the contract eith New York City. The case workers said they would refuse to work on the excess cases, which involved making home visits, advising on family problems, and arranging for extra allowances when necessary.”…
20 September 1966… The President’s Daily Brief…CIA (TS sanitized) North Vietnam: Agricultural Difficulties: There are strong indications that belts will be worn tighter in North Vietnam this winter. The prospects for the 1966 grain harvest are not promising. Grain , especially rice, is the country’s major food source. there are two rice harvests each year–one in the spring and one in the fall that produces most of the remainder. This year the spring crop was well short of last year’s and the regime is being conspicuously silent about the upcoming harvest. Usually Hanoi trumpets predictions of great success in advance…
20 SEPTEMBER 1966… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER… NYT (21 September reporting 20 September ops)… Page 5: “A military spokesman said the…United States fighter-bombers have been carrying out about 10-strike missions a day within the DMZ. In three raids yesterday, Air Force F-4 Phantom jets set off at least four large secondary explosions and several fires. American fighter-bombers pounded a variety of targets in North Vietnam yesterday. One Air Force F-105 Thunderchief was shot down and the pilot was listed as missing. By an unofficial tally it was the 377th United States plane list over North Vietnam since the bombing started early last year (March 1965.)…Three flights of f-105s attacked a storage site for Soviet surface-to-air missiles about 40 miles northeast of Hanoi. Pilots reported two large secondary explosions and a large fire. Navy carrier based jets bombed a SAM missile site 35 miles north of the central coastal city of Thanh H0a leaving a large fireball and smoke. Other naval pilots bombed the Ninh binh railway marshaling yards 60 miles south of Hanoi for the fourth consecutive day and setoff an explosion and fire.”… Page 5: “Boat Sunk Near Haiphong” …”Carrier based navy bombers attacked a North Vietnamese torpedo boat yesterday 20 miles north of Haiphong, split the vessel in half and left the boat sinking. In other raids yesterday United States Air Force planes encountered MIG-17s twice, but there was no firing between aircraft.”… “Vietnam: Air Losses”(Hobson)… Two fixed wing aircraft downed in Southeast Asia on 20 September 1966…
(1) 1LT RICHARD MacAULIFFE BLOOM, USMC, was flying an A-4E of the VMA-224 Bengals and MAG-12 at Chu Lai on a strike mission attacking a truck park 20 miles southwest of Danang. His aircraft was hit on his fourth run on the position and crashed immediately. A wingman observed the plane on fire and descent into the ground impact but did not see an ejection. 1LT MacAULIFFE was Killed in Action on the attack fifty years ago today…
(2) LCDR JAMES REGINALD BAUDER and LTJG JAMES BUTON MILLS were flying an F-4B of the VF-21 Freelancers embarked in USS CORAL SEA on a section night armed reconnaissance mission along Route 1A between Thanh Hoa and Vinh. LCDR BAUDER dropped flares for his wingman to attack then followed his wingman on an attack under the flares. After the wingman completed his first run he proceeded up Route 1A and was about to droop flares at a second site but cut it short when he could not contact LCDR BAUDER and LTJG MILLS. No flak or missile activity was noted leading to the possibility that they may have flown into the ground on their first dive bombing attack. LCDR BAUDER and LTJG MILLS were Killed in Action on this day fifty years ago. USS CORAL SEA lost four aircraft in her first week at Yankee Station…
RIPPLE SALVO… #203… THE JASON SUMMER STUDY… A few quotations and a salvo or two…
Re: Pentagon Papers: Senator Gravel edition, Volume 4…
Avail on line…. https://www.mtholyoke.edu>intel>pent3
Page 107 under the sub-title “McNamara’s Disenchantment”—July–December 1966″…”The attack on North Vietnam’s POL system was the last major escalation of the air war recommended by Secretary McNamara. Its eventual failure to produce a significant decrease in infiltration or cripple North Vietnamese logistical support for the war in the South, when added to the cumulative failure of the rest of ROLLING THUNDER, appears to have tipped the balance in his mind that further escalation of air attacks on the DRV (North Vietnam). As we shall see, a major factor in this reversal of position was the report and recommendation submitted at the end of the summer by an important study group of America’s top scientists. Another consideration weighing in his mind must have been the growing antagonism, both domestic and international, to the bombing, which was identified as the principal impediment to the opening of negotiations. But disillusionment with the bombing alone might not have been enough to produce a recommendation for change had an alternative method of impeding infiltration not been proposed at the same time. Thus, in October when McNamara recommended a stabilization of the air war at prevailing levels, he was also able to recommend the imposition of a multi-system anti-infiltration barrier across the DMZ and the Laos panhandle. The story of this momentous policy shift is the most important element in the evolution of the air war in the summer of 1966.”
Page 110 under “POL–Strategic Failure”…”It was clear in retrospect that the POL strikes had been a failure. Apart from the possibility of inconveniences, interruptions, and local shortages of a temporary nature, there was no evidence that NVN had at any time been pinched for POL…The real and immediate failure of the POL strikes ws reflected, however, in the undiminished flow of men and supplies down the Ho Chi Minh trail to the war in the South…”…Page 111: “Powerful reinforcement about the ineffectiveness of the strikes came at the end of August when a special summer study group of top American scientists submitted a series of reports through the JASON Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis…One of the papers dealt in considerable detail with the entire bombing program, generally concluding that bombing had failed in all of its specific goals.”…”Coming as they did from a highly prestigious and respected group of policy-supporting but independent-thinking scientists and scholars, and coming at the end of a long and frustrating summer in the air war, these views must have exercised a powerful influence on McNamara’s thinking. His prompt adoption of the ‘infiltration barrier’ concept they recommended as an alternative to the bombing…gives evidence to the weight these reports carried.”
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Your Humble Host recommends a reading of the JASON study pages of the Gravel Edition of the Pentagon Papers, especially if you were being shot at by North Vietnamese gunners while the Secretary of Defense was deciding to freeze the action at the no chance of winning level of commitment, and thereafter until he turned over his chair to Clark Clifford. The man had decided to use the nation’s strike assets as an attrition force. From September 1966 on, what was our mission? The “strategy of gradual defeat” became “the strategy of defeat” that Admiral Sharp chose for the title of his book.
I am of the opinion that McNamara locked on his “infiltration barrier” wall /fence idea as an alternative to ROLLING THUNDER in March of 1966 and used his staff to create the muster of acclaimed civilian scientists and educators to produce “a study that says this, is about this thick, concludes this, and recommends this.” I did a tour in Systems Analysis and participated in Pentagon studies where those were our marching orders. Studies are required to sophisticate and sell ideas in Washington. The JASON group of 67 smart guys in tweed smoking pipes sold the idea of a barrier from the sea and across the Ho Chi Minh trail to a buyer who suggested it in the first place. What a way to run a war. And, oh, by the way: how’d that barrier wall or fence work out?
Why is this important in 2016, fifty years after the event? Because the studies industry remains one of the most easily manipulated elements in the process of deciding how to allocate scarce resources. And why is this a part of this review of ROLLING THUNDER? Because, as Senator Gravel writes: “The story of this momentous policy shift is the most important element in the evolution of the air war in the summer and fall of 1966.” And a significant point was the JASON Professors grade for ROLLING THUNDER of D+… with a note that said, “As of July 1966 the U.S. bombing of North Vietnam (NVN) had had no measurable direct effect on Hanoi’s ability to mount and support military operations in the South at the current level.”
Lest we forget…. Bear ……… –30– ……….