RIPPLE SALVO… #231… ROLLING THUNDER= “A TEST OF ADVANCED SYSTEMS”…. but first…
Good Morning: Day TWO HUNDRED THIRTY-ONE looking back FIFTY YEARS to the air war over North Vietnam…
19 October 1966… HOME TOWN NEWS according to the NYT–“the Gray Lady”… A cool and rainy Wednesday…
Page 1: “12 Dead: The Department’s Worst Fire”…”The crushed and charred bodies of 12 firemen were removed today from a burned out commercial building on 23rd Street just east of Broadway after the worst fire department disaster in its 101-year history. The men were killed when the floor of a drugstore collapsed beneath them late Monday night while they were fighting a stubborn five-alarm fire that destroyed three buildings in the Madison Square area. Over the roar of pumpers still pouring tons of water on the burning building in the first light of dawn. Fire commissioner Robert O. Lowery said, as he wiped tears from his eyes: ‘I don’t understand it. These men were under the command of experienced officers who died with them. Either that floor was terribly weak, or the fire had been burning under it treacherously for some time. In my 25-years in the department I’ve never felt worse.’ The tragedy was heightened by the fact that the dead firemen leave 12 widows and 32 children.”… Page 1: “Senate Approves Attack On Slums”…”The Administration’s high priority Demonstrations Cities Bill survived a last minute threat tody and then was approved by the Senate 38 to 22. The House is expected to approve the $1.3 billion measure tomorrow. And then it will be sent to the President.”…
Page 1: “7 Quit Ky Cabinet In Regional Feud”…”Seven Ministers in the South Vietnam Cabinet resigned today, throwing the Government of Premier Nguyen Cao Ky into a crisis less than a week before the Manila conference. The Ministers charged that the Premier had done little to solve the problem of regionalism in South Vietnam and that the Government was headed toward a police state. They had threatened to resign earlier in the week and two weeks ago. Premier Ky was reported to have called the Ministers to his office for a conference in an attempt to iron out the dispute. The resignations were a serious blow to the Premier, who had hoped to go to the Manila conference with a stable government behind him.The dispute involves regional differences between South Vietnamese and Northern refugees holding high places in the Government. Premier Ky is a Northerner.”… Page 10: “U.S. Expects To Explode A Hydrogen Bomb Device Soon”…”Communist China is preparing for its fourth nuclear test, perhaps of an experimental hydrogen bomb device. On the basis of intelligence information, officials expect that the explosion could come during President Johnson’s tour of the Far East.”…
Page 9: “Air Force Orders New Jet Fighter”…”Improved Phantom jets built to have an edge over MIGs. The Air Force is buying 99 improved jets equipped for the first time with a built in gun and designed to give United States pilots a clear superiority over Russian made MIG-21s in Vietnam. The Pentagon in announcing this, said the initial production for McDonald-Douglas company would cost $272-million. The Phantom is unlike any of its predecessors, which were used in Southeast Asia will have an internally mounted 20mm Gatling gun capable of firing 6000-rounds per minute. The latest version Phantom will be designated the F-4E.”….
Page 12: “U.S. Air War Aims At Closing A Gap”…”Almost half of the 4,800 missions flown by the U.S. Air Force over North Vietnam over the last three months have concentrated on a strip of jungled mountains and coastal plain extending south from Dong hoi to the demilitarized zone. The Air Force assignment has been to block, delay or destroy all enemy movement in this small southernmost segment of the panhandle, the thin coastal region of North Vietnam. The effort is continuing despite the onset of the northeast monsoon. The assignment came soon after the Third Marine Amphibious Force, south of the demilitarized zone, which separates the two Vietnams, rushed battalions northward in Operation Hastings. The force was moved up to counter a massive new infiltration by elements of two North Vietnamese divisions through the zone and into Quangtri province.”…
19 October 1966… The President’s Daily Brief…CIA (TS sanitized) Communist China: More signs of serious political tension are showing up in Peking. The Red Guards, almost surely under high-level direction, are turning on new targets. Several of the party officials now under attack were active and, from all appearances, in good repute as recently as the first of the month. The mass rally in Peking on Tuesday was a most unusual affair. After days of preparations, a crowd of more than a million Red Guards and others kept waiting for about ten hours before Mao and other top leaders showed up. When they did appear, they simply drove by at about 20 miles an hour and the crowd was told the rally was over. There were none of the customary speeches. This probably means that top party leaders had been unable at the last minute to agree on who was to speak or what was to be said. It suggests that some of the leaders under Red Guard attack are strong enough to fight back…
19 OCTOBER 1966… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER…NYT (20 Oct reporting 19 Oct ops)… NYT… Page 14: “Weather Limits U.S. Air Raids On North Vietnam To Fewest In Months”…”American air raids in North Vietnam dropped yesterday to their lowest level of intensity in several months. In monsoon weather United States Air Force, Navy and Marine pilot flew only 44 missions of two to five planes. The daily average during September was 130 to 150 missions. Rain, mist, fog and thunderstorms began enveloping North Vietnam four days ago and limited pilots then to 79 missions. Only 5 dqays ago they set a record 175 missions. The air strikes yesterday were confined in the southern coastal plain from 36 miles north of Vinh south to the DMZ. Through out the target area the fighter bombers attacked highways, bridges, storehouses, barges, and anti-aircraft gun emplacements.”… “The annual northeasterly monsoon brings low weather along the entire eastern coast of Vietnam starting about mid-October and continuing for about six months, during the time however, the skies are frequently clear over the interior of North Vietnam.”… “Vietnam: Air Losses” (Hobson)… There were no fixed wing aircraft losses in Southeast Asia on 19 October 1966…. oohrah…
RIPPLE SALVO… #231… “OUR PILOTS CALL HANOI DODGE CITY” (Part II) by Sam Butz NYT …Times Sunday Magazine, 6 October 1966, Pages 64-66, I quote…
The air war over North Vietnam…is a test of advanced systems, there can be no mistake about this. The U.S. is employing first line Navy carrier and Tactical Air Command aircraft and electronic equipment to allow U.S. pilots to navigate precisely, locate targets quickly, bomb accurately and get home as fast as possible. And in response the Russians have equipped the North Vietnamese with a truly up-to-date anti-aircraft system.
There is no way to play down the effort: it is one of the most ambitious programs in Soviet military aid on record. Technically, it is considerably more advanced than any system or equipment which we have provided to the South Vietnamese or any of the so-called third world underdeveloped countries.
It is not the type of aid that involves sending a few crates, a set of instructions and an instructor or two. Massive on-the-spot technical assistance is needed to create such a system quickly. Many troops must be trained, complicated equipment must be maintained and considerable guidance is needed to convert expert jungle and guerrilla army commanders into equally expert anti-aircraft technicians. The air war in the North has been underway for about 18-months; daily attacks began in February 1965. Since then both sides have continuously refined and strengthened their air war efforts. The SAMs were first employed in June 1965, and there has been a steady increase in the number of arms and missiles according to Defense Department officials.
Enough time has passed, therefore, to draw some conclusionsabout the air battle and to make some predictions about the final outcome. Three main observations seem in order.
The first is that fighter losses are not as high as originally predicted by the Defense Department. In their first encounter the fighters have clearly bested the ground-to-air guided missiles. The day of the manned aircraft is thus far from over; air defenses do not have the upper hand.
But despite the fine performance of our flyers the U.S. cannot claim victory. The air war is an old fashioned battle of attrition, involving thousands of fighter flights. The North Vietnamese defense has given a creditable account of itself by shooting down about one of every 150 attacking fighters–better than the score of World War II anti-aircraft guns. This stiff defense is the principal reason Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara estimates that during the year 1967 in both North and South Vietnam the will lose 580 attack aircraft valued at $1.2 billion. Losses on that order are a major military liability and could develop into a political issue.
The second observation is that the North Vietnamese defense is also very costly. The communists are not opposing the U.S. cheaply. Ammunition resupply alone is a staggering problem.Unofficial military sources and many press reports indicate there are 7,000 to 10,000 fast firing cannons in North Vietnam of 37mm caliber or larger. But even if there are only 5,000 guns and each is fired for one minute eacn day, a prodigious quantitiy of ammunition is being expended. In a year hundreds of thousands of tons of cannon shells would be needed. Since a large percentage of them are reported to be fitted with radio controlled proximity fuses to detonate the shells when close to a target aircraft in case of a near miss, this is rather sophisticated ammunition.
A steady stream of ocean going freighters from friendly nations, around one a day, and scores of railroad cars from China are needed to keepthe ammunition supply pipeling full, as North Vietnam’s ammunition manufacturing resources are said to be extememly limited.
Thirdly, air warfare is very flexible, offering both sides many opportunities for tactical innovations. Many cards are yet to be played. Neither side has exhausted its skills or its advanced e1quipment in the silent, secret battle of electronic countermeasures (E.C.M.), the jamming and tricking of the other’s radars and communications nets. New weapons could be brought in. The Soviets have more advanced SAM missiles then the SA-2 system. The effectiveness of the U.S. attacks on anti-aircraft positions could be greatly increased through the use of new anti-personnel weapons that cover much larger areas than conventional bombing and strafing… Unquote…
PART III in RIPPLE SALVO… #232…tomorrow…
Lest we forget…. Bear ……… –30– ………