RIPPLE SALVO… #863… AS THE LEADERS OF THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA MEET EYE-TO-EYE IN HELSINKI TODAY TO TALK, Humble Host brings a little history to the fore from 16 July 1968 that makes it clear that the side that has POWER, POSITION and RESOLVE (P-P-R) on his side of the coffee table will rule the day. They are the three cards that a major power in the world of the 21st century must have in hand to deter war and prevail if unable to prevent it. In 1964 the United States had P-P-R over the PRC as it was devouring itself. The Soviet Union and the United States achieved a balance of P-P-R that resulted in mutual deterrence. Then we committed to a land war in Southeast Asia against a third rate country that forced America to fight an asymmetrical war according to the North Vietnamese rules. It was an expensive war in terms of blood, treasure and national resolve. And we lost.
While we were thus engaged, our POWER was spread thin, our POSITION in Europe and most of the world was weakened as we concentrated in Southeast Asia–the subject of an OpEd below– and American RESOLVE to fight and win dipped enough to encourage the rogues of the world to get aggressive and push forward within their respective regions. American influence waned. Then, American POWER, POSITION and RESOLVE were restored in the 1980s and peaked with a lighting fast victory in DESERT STORM, after which a “peace dividend” was declared and military budgets shifted to other priorities. Our armed forces were cut by 40%. And then, alas, we went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Fifteen years later we remain engaged in a pair of wars that can’t be won; reprise Vietnam. And the Russians and Mainland Chinese know it. So do Iran, North Korea and every other ambitious rogue in the world… Russia grabs Crimea and chunks of Ukraine and what’s our reaction?… a UN Resolution.
American POWER is not what it used to be and must be. We are out of POSITION as a consequence of involvement in wars that have little or nothing to do with our most important national interests or priorities. The nation is more divided than at any time since 1865. In addition, there is a terrible truth that permanently limits our power and influence–our staggering national debt of $22-trillion, compounded by a lack of national will to change spending plans for the future.
Our President has been led to believe our current POWER account is fat, when it is exceedingly lean. (Somebody needs to tell him aur Air Force is 2,000 pilots short; our Navy is pulling sailors off shore duty early to make up for personnel shortages; our carrier decks have 2/3 the number of strike-fighters they are intended to carry; our Big Bombers are the same ones that were dropping bombs on the DMZ 50 years ago today; our recruiters are lowering standards to fill the ranks. Who is kidding who?…Our national will to wage war –RESOLVE– is at rock bottom. Our forces are out of POSITION and engaged in fights that make no sense. President Trump sits at the coffee table in Helsinki today with a bare-bones wallet–and Putin knows it…. HENRY J. TAYLOR’s Op Ed: “Kremlin Plans Deadly Game In Annexing Mediterranean” is below. But first…
GOOD MORNING..Day EIGHT HUNDRED SIXTY-THREE of a daily blog that recalls the history of the years 1965 through 1968 and the events and aviators who fought the great air battle with the coded name Rolling Thunder.
HEAD LINES from the Ogden Standard-Examiner of 16 July 1968…
THE WAR: Page 1: “VIETCONG STILL PLANNING ATTACKS ON SAIGON”… “The ground war picked up south of Saigon Monday and today, with 192 of the enemy reported killed. But a senior U.S. officer said large enemy units had moved westward from the Saigon area and the next big Vietcong offensive against the South Vietnamese capital is not likely before late July or early August… Danang and Hue, the two big major cities in the north part of the country also were considered likely target for a general Communist offensive…After a lull the 9th Infantry Division–protecting the southern approaches to the city tangled with an enemy force Monday 16 miles south-southeast of the capital. The battle raged until just before dawn today and the American command sent in dive bombers, artillery and helicopter gunships to pound the enemy. U.S. headquarters said 76 Vietcong troops were slain and 12 weapons captured, including six mortars. U.S. losses were seven killed and 21 wounded…. In the Mekong Delta to the south U.S. and South Vietnamese ground, air and naval forces reported killing 116 enemy in an all-day battle Monday. Seventeen Americans and two South Vietnamese were wounded…. As many as 1,000 9th Division infantrymen plus 1,000 South Vietnamese troops boxed the enemy in near Phu Vinh. U.S. Air Force dive bombers and Army gunships pounded the guerrillas, and South Vietnamese troops said they counted 61 enemy soldiers killed by air strike alone. A large cache of ammunition was also seized.”…
PEACE TALKS: No coverage…
Page 1: “FORTAS DENIES REPORTS OF LBJ ROLE–ASSUMED NO PART IN POLICY”… “Justice Abe Fortas told the Senate Judiciary Committee today he participated in White House meetings on the Vietnam war and on riots in the cities. But he insisted his role was only to summarize for the President what others said in the session. The Justice testifying to be chief justice of the United States, said he was consulted on very few matters and that they have not been matters on which he could claim to be an expert. ‘My role has been solely one who sits in the meeting while others express their views,’ Fortas said. He continued that the President ‘turns to me last to summarize.'”… Page 1: “REPLACE POSTAL SYSTEM, COMMISSION SAYS”… “A commission named by President Johnson urged today creation of a special corporation to operate the nation’s postal service and elimination of all political jobs in the mail service.”… Page 1: “MYSTERY RADIO EXHORTS MAO’S ARMY TO REVOLT”… “A mystery Chinese radio station calling itself ‘voice of the People’s Liberation Army’ has called upon PLA commanders and troops throughout Red China to prepare for a ‘true communist’ revolt against party chairman Mao Tse-tung, Defense Minister Lin Piao nd Mao’s wife, Chiang Ching. Violently denouncing the three for ‘usurping Communist power, lying to the masses and cheating the PLA.'”… Page 1: “RED TROOPS REMAIN IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA”… “The Soviet Union has again delayed withdrawal of its troops from Czechoslovakia and along with four East European allies has sent a letter to the new liberal regime in Prague.'”… Page 1: “REAGAN TO HEAD SOUTH TO CAMPAIGN–OFFSET WALLACE THREAT”… “California Governor Ronald Reagan says his swing through the South beginning this week will be aimed against what some Republicans consider a growing threat from former Alabama Governor George C. Wallace.”… Page 4: “192 DIE BY GUNFIRE IN WEEK’S SURVEY”… “Deaths by firearms totaled 192 across the nation lst week, the Associated Press survey showed and more than 80-per cent resulted from the deliberate firing ot a handgun,shotgun or rifle…The survey showed 121 homicides, 40 suicides and 31 accidental shooting in the week from midnight Sunday, July 7 to midnight Sunday, July 14.”…
16 JULY 1968… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER… Ogden Standard-Examiner/AP: No coverage of air war north of the DMZ… VIETNAM: AIR LOSSES (Chris Hobson) there were two fixed wing aircraft downed in Southeast Asia on 16 July 1968…
(1) An A-7A of VA-97 Warhawks embarked in USS Constellation was lost due to fuel starvation. Aircraft returning from strike was holding over the carrier for recovery and inexplicably flamed out due to fuel exhaustion. The pilot ejected and was recovered by the carrier’s helicopter… This was Connie’s first loss of the deployment…
(2) An F-102A of the 590th FIS and 405th FW was lost in the theater due to engine failure. The pilot ejected and was recovered… Aircraft was out of Clark AFB and flying an escort mission at the time of the failure…
SUMMARY FOR ROLLING THUNDER LOSSES (KIA/MIA/POW) FOR THE FOUR YEARS OF THE OPERATION OVER NORTH VIETNAM…
1965, 1966, 1967 and 1968… NONE… However Humble Host suggests a return to the RTR post for 16 July 1967 (Ripple Salvo #498) for one of the great rescue storie of the Rolling Thunder years. Navy Lieutenant Commander Demetrio A. Verich was downed (his second time) 16 miles south of Hanoi by SAMs–in a bunch– and after spending the night evading the enemy was rescued by a Navy SH-3 of HS-2. a feat that earned LT NEIL SPARKS the NAVY CROSS…
RIPPLE SALVO… #863… OGDEN STANDARD-EXAMINER, 17 JULY 1968, Page 6 Opinion Editorial by National Columnist HENRY J.TAYLOR…
KREMLIN PLAYS DEADLY GAME OF ANNEXING MEDITERRANEAN… I quote…
President Johnson, attempting to show that the administration has achieved better relations with the Kremlin, prefers to keep the mounting Middle East crisis largely under wraps. But the question is: Will the Soviets let Mr. Johnson keep the lid on this until after the November elections? The Joint Chiefs of Staff know that the Soviet makes it move like a player in a chess gme, seeing the moves ahead one pivotal position to dominate the next pivotal position. This is the basis for the Soviet’s and Israel pivot. It helps to harness the Arab in an anti-American stance. And the basic purpose is to overextend the United States into the most distant far-flung points of the compass.
STEAM UP ANOTHER
Moreover, in manipulating the pressures against the free world the Kremlin rule is: “Never let the steam out of one sequence without getting another one going.” Well established in Cuba, the Soviet shifted its aggressions from Cuba to far-distant Vietnam. And now the Kremlin has gone greatly beyond anything we are told in lining up its chess board in tghe Mideast. President Johnson and former defense Secretary Robert S. McNamara contrived until late 1966 to keep from general knowledge the fact that the Vietnam War costs had grown to about $35-billion a year. One reason, privately admitted by administration officials, was that they knew Congress would cut dramatically Great Society outpouring s if the full truth about the war cost were revealed.
Accordingly, playing this political game to the hilt, Mr. McNamara did not budget a single nickel for the Vietnam War until fiscal 1968. His proclaimed cost-pairing was achieved chiefly in two ways: (1) by stretching out procurement programs and (2) by stripping equipment and inventories from our combat forces elsewhere to supply the needs in Vietnam, all of which the Kremlin knows. (Humble Host notes: same bad habit in practice today)…
The result directly and enormously complicates the Mideast crisis. This column reported some unrevealed facts from the U.S. 6th fleet headquarter in Naples. That great fleet has been cannibalized. There are dangerous shortages throughout the fleet while the Soviet builds up its chess-like counter-force. Senior officers of our 6th Fleet privately confirmed to me that these shortages re in personnel, modern arms and equipment, aircraft, spare parts, reserve stock and an absolutely frightening list of bottleneck items. They are profoundly concerned about the state of the U.S. 7th Army in Germany where we have 250,000 troops, the capabilities of their own Mediterranean fleet, the support possible by the cannibalized Atlantic Fleet and the present status of strategic reserves.
Naples based Admiral C. A. Griffin, the commander of Allied Forces for Southern Europe was always convinced that the Soviet Mediterranean naval build-up that began after the Israel-Arab War would expand and expand and be permanent. The Mediterranean is a lake separating Europe and Africa. It means “Middle of the World,” of course, and the lake’s southern rim is a land-bridge that makes the Mideast the crossroads of the world. Through these passes all the air and ea routes between Europe and India, East Africa, an oil-rich Arabian peninsula, Southeast Asia, the Far East, new Zealand and Australia. (Humble Host notes: The 6th Fleet was outnumbered in 100-70 in ships/subs in the Med for the 1973 Israeli-Arab fist-fight)…
HOSTILE TO U.S.
“Except for Turkey, Israel and Morocco, the entire southern rim of the Mediterranean is hostile to the United States. Egyptian, Syrian and Algerian harbors are available to the expanding Soviet Mediterranean fleet. To the southeast, if the Soviet can also attract on an anti-Israel basis the regimes in Jordan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, Moscow can acquire air and naval lodgments that have been used by Britain and the United States that dominate the entire Indian Ocean area.
Africa flanks this region. And below it, the Soviet lodgment on the island of Zanzibar opens all of East Africa to Soviet support by sea. Whatever type of defense the Africans employ (if any) it has been made clear President Johnson that the nations of Africa, like those in the Middle East, cannot escape Soviet strategic pressures that now flare behind the scenes. This is a tremendous Soviet strategic accomplishment, step-by-step, the Soviet has overextended American power around the globe until in this Middle East problem the United States finds itself Superman trapped in a bottle…. End Henry Taylor Op Ed quote…
RTR quote for 16 July: Attributed to ABRAHAM LINCOLN: “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”… (Here is hoping nobody gets fooled at the coffee table in Helsinki today…)…
Lest we forget…. Bear