RIPPLE SALVO… #317… “…there is opportunity.”…Sun Tzu… but first…
Good Morning: Day THREE HUNDRED SEVENTEEN of recalling the events of the air war with North Vietnam called Rolling Thunder, fifty years ago…
16 January 1967: HEADLINES IN THE HOMETOWN PAPERS from the New York Times on a fair and windy Monday…
Page 1: “Packers Rout Chiefs With 21-Point Second Half and Win Super Bowl Game, 35-10. Bart Starr completed 16 of 23 passes-two go to Max McGee for scores. Kansas City only passed midfield once in second half. Game tickets sold for $6 to $12.”…
Page 22: “Dr. King Plagued by Resistance and Apathy in Chicago Slums”… “Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr’s latest venture in his year-long drive to eradicate Chicago’s slums is encountering resistance at City Hall and apathy in the Negro ghettos…One (Civil Rights) leader said: “I don’t like Chicago. We’re used to working with people who want to be free. The Chicago Negro isn’t concerned about what the power structure is doing too him.”… Page 1: “President to Ask for $3.2 Billion In Aid: Faces Hard Test”… “President Johnson is expected to ask Congress in his Budget Message later this month for about $3.2-billion to finance economic and military foreign aid in the fiscal year beginning on July 1. The amount would be below the $3.39-billion he requested a year ago but significantly more than the $2.94-billion appropriated by the Congress. For this reason, among others, the request is expected to encounter determined opposition in the House….Similar difficulty for Mr. Johnson’s Great Society programs was also predicted today by Congressional leaders.”… Page 16: “Cuts Predicted in Great Society”… “Congressional leaders from both political parties indicated today that the President’s Great Society program were likely to encounter more effective opposition from Southern Democrats and conservative Republicans.”… Page 8: “462 Yale Faculty Urge Halt in Bombing”… “A letter signed by 462 of 2000 members of the Yale University faculty was mailed last night to President Johnson urging ‘most respectively’ that the United States ‘declare an unconditional halt to the bombing of North Vietnam.’ (the entire letter was published by the NYT) Included: ‘We know you are as anxious for peace as the rest of us and we fervently hope you’ll agree that the cessation of bombing is now essential for achievement of that peace…’ “…
Page 1: “Hanoi Denies Aim to Annex South” (Harrison Salisbury reports) “About 10 days ago Le Duan, First Secretary of the North Vietnamese Workers (Communist) Party made a speech to army cadets outlining the party policy. The party, he said, stands for ‘socialism in the North and democracy in the South.’ His declaration was the talk of Hanoi, not because he had enunciated a new line, but because he had found it essential to restate the policy at this particular moment… (Le Duan is quite possibly more important in the party than Premier Pham Van Dong). There are some who believe if President Ho Chi Minh were to die, he would be succeeded by Mr. Le Duan or another figure equally little known in the West.”… Page 7. “Services Assail U.S. Build-Up Curb”… “A ceiling on the size of American forces in Vietnam, only recently set by the Johnson Administration is under fire from the Joint Chiefs of Staff…In planning the new budget the Administration decided to call a halt to the open end commitment of American troops to the war. …Despite repeated statements to the effect that Westmoreland gets whatever he wants…Secretary McNamara rejected the General’s request to continue a build-up to about 500,000 men by June 1967… instead, the military is to plan on a maximum total of 470,000 to 480,000 by mid-1968.”…
Page 1: “China Said to Set 3 War Conditions”… A French editor says that Communist China has set conditions for remaining out of the Vietnam war and that the United States is observing them… The foreign editor of the magazine Paris-Match says the Chinese assurances were relayed through the French Foreign Ministry. The State Department declined to comment…on the statement made in a copyrighted interview in U.S. News and World Report. The three conditions: the United States will not invade North Vietnam, not invade Red China, and not bomb the dikes of the Red River in North Vietnam.”… Page 3: “The Outlook For Mao”…”Most China watchers in Hong Kong believe Mao must widen the purge to win. A broader purge of China’s Communist Party organization will probably be necessary if Mao Tse-tung, the party’s Chairman, and his closest associate Defense Minister Lin Piao are to succeed in the cultural revolution, many in the hong Kong experienced China watchers believe. The evidence indicates that the two Chinese leaders have already launched such an attack on party committees at every level.”
16 January 1967…The President’s Daily Brief…CIA (TS sanitized) NORTH VIETNAM: Disruptions of rail traffic in China continue widespread. We have no evidence that these daily difficulties are having an impact on North Vietnam, but the lines and junction points affected include some through which Soviet aid to Hanoi must pass… ISRAEL-SYRIA: Conditions along the border are becoming increasing explosive. UN observers report that both Israel and Syria have been moving armor and artillery into forward areas during the past week. Israeli Foreign Minister Eban said today that his country has no intention of turning the problem over to the UN Security Council. He implied that recourse to the UN has always been futile… SOVIET UNION: We believe Moscow’s recent release on bail of jailed US tourist Buel Wortham is related directly to Soviet interest in passage of the proposed East-West trade bill…
16 JANUARY 1967… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER… New York Times (17 Jan reporting 16 Jan ops) Page 1: “U.S. Jets Resume Raids on Targets in the Hanoi Area”… “The United States has resumed air strikes near Hanoi…Air Force jets, taking advantage of clear skies, struck the Hagia fuel depots 14 1/2 miles northwest of Hanoi today and missile sites 15 miles west of the capital city…MIGs were reported sighted during both raids–four planes yesterday and an unspecified number today…the MIGs did not engage the American airman either day…no damage assessment on the oil depot strike, but the missile site was destroyed and another damaged. Although anti-aircraft fire in some areas in the North was described as heavy, both days passed without the loss of a United States plane. Weather has been the sole factor limiting missions in North Vietnam. The skies over North Vietnam have been overcast and often filled with thunder storms since mid-October when the northeasterly monsoon began. The monsoon of seasonal wind, will continue to bring bad flying weather until mid-May. Air Force pilots flew a total of 37 missions of two or more airplanes in the North yesterday concentrating on railroads, highways and bridges in the Red River valley that link Hanoi with Communist China. Three flights of F-105 Thunderchiefs hammered the Viet Tri railroad yard 31 miles northwest of Hanoi and four others bombed the Traica highway and railroad bridge 40 miles north of the capital. Navy and Marine Corps pilots, who brought the combined total of American missions to 94, flew strikes throughout the southern panhandle and along the rugged crescent shaped coast.”… Page 15: “Foe Reports U.S. Planes Down”…”One was shot down 75 miles northwest of Hanoi and the other, a pilotless reconnaissance drone, 25 miles south of Hanoi.”…
“Vietnam: Air Losses” (Hobson) There were three fixed wing aircraft lost in Southeast Asia on 16 January 1967…
(1) CAPTAIN THOMAS GORDON STOREY and 1LT ROBERT LAMBERT MASTIN were flying an RF-4C of the 11th TRS and 432nd TRW out of Udorn on a photo reconnaissance mission in Route Pack 6 and was nailed by AAA 25 miles north of Kep forcing an immediate ejection and subsequent capture. The two had flown 34 missions together before the one way flight. Both were released from imprisonment in March 1967.,,
(2) CAPTAIN ROBERT JOHN WELCH and 1LT MICHAEL SCOTT KERR were also flying an RF-4C of the 11th TRS on a similar recce mission to obtain post strike BDA on the Viet Tri strike and were hit by an SA-2 that rendered the aircraft unflyable. 1LT KERR was able to eject with difficulty due to G-forces, but CAPTAIN WELCH was not. The aircraft was observed to continue a high-G dive into a mountain 35 miles northwest of Hanoi. CAPTAIN KERR was Killed in Action and 1LT WELCH was captured to return in March 1973… CAPTAIN KERR perished fifty years ago today and is remembered as re continues to rest in peace…Left behind?…
(3) A F-104C Starfighter of the 435th TFS and 8th TFW out of Udorn suffered an engine failure while on a CAP mission and the pilot was forced to eject. He survived.
RIPPLE SALVO… #317… SUN TZU: “In the midst of chaos, there is opportunity.” In January 1967 Communist China was “in the midst of chaos” and the United States passed on the opportunity. To wit: please note (NYT above) that Red China leaked the word that as long as the United States did not: (1) Invade North Vietnam, (2) Invade Red China, or (3) Take out the dikes in the Red River delta, China would not intervene on North Vietnam’s behalf. Nothing there about China intervention if the United States escalated the war to eliminate every target the JCS had on any and every list, mined the harbor at Haiphong, and brought the Buffs into the bombardment of North Vietnam, all of which the Doves in Washington held would bring millions of communists charging into North Veitnam to war with the United States… To wit: China was in turmoil and wound around their axle to the point where their massive armies were taking sides in the cultural revolution of Mao. The Communist Party bureaucrats were opposing Mao and Lin and the situation was certainly “chaotic.” Read here a few notes quoted from the CIA (TS sanitized) President’s Daily Briefs on 14 and 18 January 1967…
14th: Mao’s “Cornerstone of proletarian dictatorship, ‘The People’s Liberation Army, has developed some cracks. The latest evidence of divided loyalty within the military establishment is provided today in the army’s own journal. An editorial admits there are Mao opponents in the military leadership–“their influence permeates everywhere”– and describes the struggle between the army’s pro and anti-Maoists as “acute and complicated.” The spasms of the cultural revolution continue to disrupt the national economy. Rail service is out or reduced in many areas and many factories are closed. Tension remains high in Nanking and Shanghai. Mao’s forces appear to have the upper hand in Shanghai, but there are continued indications of trouble in the city. There are suggestions that Nanking may be held by Mao’s opponents.
18th: The political convulsions continue. We are now seeing signs that Mao’s enemies are counterattacking. In fact, they may even be gaining ground in some localities. Today for the first time, Mao’s wife and his assistant Chen Po-ta came under attack in posters seen in Peking. Other posters praised Chief of State Liu Shao-chi, the principal target of the Mao inspired Red Guards. The latest miliary man to come under poster attack was named last week a member of the army’s purge organization. A blackout on local news has been imposed on fourteen regional radio stations in recent days. This is a clear sign that these cities are in the grip of political struggle and that the issue has not yet been decided. The big southern city of Canton seems to be still under the control of party bureaucrats. end PDB notes.
Conditions in China were bad and deteriorating. Why didn’t we strike hard on an enemy, NVN, that was back on its heels as it cranked up its propaganda program and built up it’s air defenses…As Admiral U.S. Grant Sharp said as he submitted his proposals for ROLLING THUNDER 53 on 18 JANUARY 1967… Pentagon Papers, Gravel Edition, Vol IV (page 139) …
“…he (CINCPAC) argued that the extraordinary measures the enemy had taken to strengthen his air defenses and generate world opinion against bombing were evidence of how much the air strikes were hurting him.”
Humble Host submits that the chaos in China should have been exploited. Opportunity lost. “Fortune favors the bold.” LBJ’s team in Washington was short on bold and in the grasp of indecision and caution to the point that they never wavered in their fear of Communist China intervention.
Ponder this: In 2017 our country is pulling apart. We are in the throes of a chaotic and divisive transformation with obvious weaknesses in our economy and military readiness. Does our chaotic condition present an opportunity for China, Russia, Iran… or anybody else with a chip on their shoulder to challenge our nation even more openly than has been the case for the past five years?….
CAG’s QUOTES for 16 January: NAPOLEON: “Ambition is the main driving force in a man.”…. PATTON: “Untutored courage is useless in the face of educated bullets.”…
Lest we forget….. Bear