RIPPLE SALVO… THEN AND NOW…but first…

Good Morning: Day FIFTY-SIX of a review of Operation Rolling Thunder…a long time ago… 50 Years…

26 APRIL 1966 (NYT)… ON THE HOMEFRONT… A cloudy cool Tuesday in New York…Page 1: Headline: “Russell Favors a Poll in Vietnam On U.S. Presence, Says We Can’t Possibly Win Against Vietcong If People Oppose American Help”… “Rejects Domino Theory”…The article refers to an interview of Senator Richard Russell of Georgia, and Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, published by U.S. News and World Report. “The Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said today that the United States should withdraw its troops from South Vietnam now if a survey of public opinion showed that a majority of the people oppose their presence.”…Russell: “We can’t possibly win if we are fighting an enemy in front of us while the people we are supposed to be helping are against us and want us out of the country.”… Also interviewed: John Kenneth Galbraith, a Harvard economist, concurred with Senator Russell and rejected the view that Red China was ready or able to conquer all of Southeast Asia… Galbraith: “I have never believed in the simplicity of the Domino Theory. Indonesia was one of the dominoes that would fall. But it has now righted itself–although at a tremendous cost in human life. This is and was the wrong place to make a stand. I don’t think we can roll back the area controlled by the Vietcong for 10 years and I question the wisdom of other people trying. Even under a policy of Communist containment, I would not want them contained on a questionable ground. If you pressed me to say whether Indochina was vital to the United States I would have to say no. I don’t think Vietnam is a testing place of American Democracy or that it is strategically of otherwise important to United States interests. If we were not in Vietnam all that part of the world would be enjoying the obscurity it so richly deserves.” Galbraith did agree that “we just can’t march out.”

Galbraith: “If we have to be caught up there in tides of religious controversy and political controversy and philosophical disagreements to the point that lives of American boys are endangered when they walk down the streets of a city they have come to save from the Communists…if that is the case…then it is time we reexamine our position, however painful that reexamination may be.”

Russell: “I think the attitude of the average person is that we should go in and win–or else get out. These people I am talking about feel that if we have the means to get this war over then we should bring it to a conclusion as speedily as we can.”

 Humphrey is also on Page 1: Headline: “Vice President Humphrey Urges Hard Line In War…Calls For Endurance To Meet Frustrations And Scolds Vietnam Policy Critics”… Humphrey: “We are there. I am not going to argue about that because it is ancient history and can’t be repeated….it is not a civil war, and critics ought to know better. We are fighting for the freedom of a people. This war is being fought by the National Liberation Front. The NLF is a front. That’s the only honest word for it. It’s a front for Hanoi.”

Page 2: “2 More American Jets Downed in North Vietnam, Destruction of F-105 Raises Week’s Plane Losses to 10“… article also mentions that in the future the specifics on losses with relation to which enemy anti-air capability is responsible for the downing will not be reported in order to deny North Vietnam the value of that information. The first of the two downed F-105s went down in a SAM area 35 miles northeast of Hanoi. A parachute was observed and the pilot is listed as MIA. The second aircraft was hit in the same area, but no chute was observed. The pilot is MIA. The losses occurred while strikes were being executed on the northeast railway system linking China to Hanoi. Principal targets: Bacgiang railroad bridge 25 miles northeast of Hanoi and the Lang Thip railroad bridge 117 miles northwest of Hanoi….Also on page 2: Moscow says the U.S. is following a risky path of escalation and has made another extremely dangerous step in the devastating air war. The reference was to the use of B-52s against targets in North Vietnam (Mugia)… Also a short report from the North Vietnam Press: “Confronted with the people’s war the United States pirates resorted to sneak attacks, but were nevertheless dealt crippling blows.”…. (Your Humble Host also noted somewhere in the NYT on April 26 that the price of an A-4C in 1966 was $800,000..)

26 APRIL 1966… ROLLING THUNDER OPS… One aircraft downed— An F-4B from VF-114 on Kitty Hawk… The OPREP reads…” The phantom was on a coastal recce and commenced an attack on a large junk from 5,000-feet with a rack of MK-82 500-pounders. The pilot pickled and pulled out at 500-feet. The crew of two felt a thump in the recovery and shortly thereafter started streaming fuel followed by a fire warning light. The pilot secured the starboard engine and flew the aircraft back to the vicinity of the Kitty Hawk, but due to other system failures, the crew was forced  to eject to be rescued by the carrier’s helicopter. The crew of two LTJGs survived to fight another day. Thumb rule on dropping ordnance…For a MK-82 500-pounder, the release altitude must be high enough to be level and climbing by 1500-feet. All impact detonated ordnance requires you plan for clearance of the fragmentation pattern of the bomb of 1000-feet plus the bomb weight… i.e. for this attack: 1,500-feet minimum altitude… This young crew of two LTJGs were overeager, violated the minimum altitude, and learned a hard lesson…(Your Humble Host wonders what the cost of an F-4B was in April 1966.)

RIPPLE SALVO… THEN AND NOW… The standard boast about our 2016 military is that it is the finest fighting force in our history… I thought I’d take a look at the fighting forces in being in 1966 when we were tinkering around the edges of North Vietnam and applying the slow drip strategy to defeating a third rate country… Here’s what we had available…

In January of 1965 the Department of Defense had completed a major build-up of U.S. conventional, counterinsurgency, and nuclear forces in order to contain communism around the world. And at that time the plan was to reduce military spending to address domestic requirements. The escalation of the Vietnam War in 1966 changed the plan.

The following is from volume six of the “Secretaries of Defense Historical Series'”entitled, “McNamara, Clifford and the Burden of Vietnam,”  authored by Edward J. Drea in 2011 — 700-pages of truth in fine print…

“While FY 1965 witnessed some retrenchment in Defense costs and personnel, in subsequent years the expanding war in Indochina and mounting troubles elsewhere necessitated continual increase. As of June 1965, the armed services had 2,624,779 men and 30,610 women on active duty, altogether some 32,020 fewer than a year earlier. Major force elements included 16 Army and 3 Marine divisions, 880 Navy ships, 78 Air Force combat air wings, and 22 intercontinental ballistic missile squadrons. DoD employed more than 1,164,000 civilians. The FY 1965 Defense budget amounted to $49.7 billion in new obligational authority, $1.2 less than the previous year. Three years later, 30 June 1968, the 3,509,506 men and 38,397 women in the active forces supported 18 Army divisions, 4 Marine divisions, 932 Navy ships, 67 Air Force combat air wings (each with more aircraft per squadron than in 1965), and 26 intercontinental ballistic missile squadrons. DoD civilians numbered 1,436,000. The FY 1968 Defense budget with supplements amounted to $76.8 BILLION.”

Here is where we are NOW with “the greatest military in the history of the world,” or some such, as the Administration is want to tell the American people… I refer to the “Heritage Foundation 2016 Index of U.S. Military Strengths” and  assessments of the four services and our nuclear war fighting capability…

Navy…”The Navy continues to be marginally capable of defending U.S. interests. Its fleet remains undersized and readiness challenges have  grown.” The FY 2015 inventory of ships is 271 to meet a requirement of 308.

Army…”The U.S. Army score (on the annual Heritage Assessment) dropped to ‘weak’ in the past year, driven primarily by further cuts.” The total end strength of the active Army in 2011 was 566,000 and in FY 2015 was 490,000. More cuts are planned with 450,000 identified as the minimum planned. Current total Department of the Army military personnel: 1,042,000 with 490,000 actives, 350,000 National Guard, and 202,000 Army Reserves. However, the cuts from 2011 have resulted in a 29% cut in Battalion Combat Teams.

Air Force…”the Air Force fell to ‘marginal’ in its ability to contribute to U.S. military power. This was driven largely by mounting readiness concerns.” The Air Force has been required to absorb reductions in capacity in order to maintain capability. Personnel: 313,000 active, 67,000 reserve and 105,000 National Guard. Aircraft in inventory= 5,433. Aircraft Squadrons= a total of 54, with 40 active and 14 Reserve and Guard. This provides for 24 TACAIR squadrons and compares with 133 TACAIR squadrons during Desert Storm (1991). The average age of Air Force aircraft is 27 years and aircraft design life is 20-30 years. The F-15 force has expended 90% of its operational life. The Air Force B-52s that numbered about 350 in 1966 are now well below 100 in number at age 50 plus…

(Your Humble Host notes that the first B-52 strikes on North Vietnam (Mugia Pass east side) were on 20 April 1966 and the first B-52 strike on ISIS occurred on 18 April 2016– what a way to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Rolling Thunder…You go Buffs!…you Ageless Wonders)…..

Marine Corps… “The U.S. Marine Corps has had to favor current readiness over modernization due to budget cuts. The service is also too small to meet increasing demands of its forces.” End Strength of 202,000 in 2012 has been reduced to 184,000 in 2015 with further cuts planned to 175,000. These reductions leave the Marines at 23 Battalions, currently, down from 25, and a plan to go to 21 Battalions (900 men and women per Infantry Battalion). the Marines of 2012 deployed for 7-months and were home to refit and train for 21 months. With the cuts this ratio of deploy/turnaround has changed to 7/14 months and will be at 7/7 months with further cuts. This tempo is unsustainable and destructive. Marine Air is now operating its 264 F-18 A/Ds to a new maximum life of 10,000 hours on an aircraft that is designed for a 6,000 hour life span.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Capability: “America’s nuclear deterrent force remains marginally able to provide strategic security. Modernization shortfalls factored heavily into this assessment.” Our nation made a decision at the end of the Cold War to maintain the old inventory and forgo development of new weapons incorporating new technology. We now have an inventory of weapons that is of “unknown reliability.” …”Thus assessing the extent to which anyone piece of the nuclear enterprise is sufficiently funded, focused and effective with regard to the nuclear mission is impossible,” says Heritage, in their annual review of our military posture. A few notes for my readers cogitation. The warheads of old have been stored and can be returned to operational status within six to twenty-four months. Our Minuteman III ICBMs are ready to go with one warhead and can be upgraded to three warheads given 6 to 24 months to make the upgrade. Heritage reports that if our country wants to conduct tests to develop 21st century nuclear weapons two to three years of lead time will be required. They also note that the nuclear lab test equipment has aged and deteriorated along with lab personnel. Old hands are retiring and new hands are difficult to find sinc nuclear warfare is a tenuous occupation. Heritage wraps up their review with the following:…” U.S nuclear platforms are in dire need of recapitalization” and funding has been limited. Also:… “the readiness of forces assigned the nuclear mission has seriously eroded.”

Two points from the writer for your consideration. One: In 1966 our country had the where withal to get in and get out of Vietnam with a win and honor, if we chose too. Two: Anybody who believes our current military posture and capability is the greatest in the world or in our history is woefully ignorant of the facts and is a voice to be ignored as the “winds of war” and “storm clouds gather” in every corner of the world. “Peace through strength” remains the paramount axiom of national survival. Just how strong are we? Not strong enough to keep Putin on his own turf or to keep the Chinese from new adventures in “the outer crescent.” Our country is in peril, but our leaders, including admirals and generals, tell us all is well, and the people remain oblivious to the danger. Our national power, position and resolve are ebbing in the face of growing threats on all sides and from within… That is my opinion, what’s yours?…

Lest we forget….      Bear                 …………………..  –30–  ………………….