RIPPLE SALVO… #232…   3rd SEGMENT OF “GOING TO DODGE” by Sam Butz of NYT… but first…

Good Morning: Day TWO HUNDRED THIRTY-TWO of a return to Operation Rolling Thunder (1965-1968)…

20 October 1966… FRONT PAGE NEWS AT HOME…New York Times… Gloomy Thursday morning but clearing gradually…

Page 1: “Johnson Appeals To Hanoi To ‘End A War It Cannot Win’ “…”President Johnson began his tour of the Western Pacific today in appealing to North Vietnam to give up a war that he said it ‘cannot win’ and to accept instead his help in a war on Asian poverty. The President revived this appeal in a luncheon with leaders of the New Zealand Parliament. He sounded several themes that are expected to dominate his speeches on foreign soil over the next two weeks, all related to his sense of the emergence of a ‘new’ Asia. The Johnson’s left New Zealand for Canberra, Australia at 5PM (1AM EDT) after a short visit to a sheep shearing shed at a farm four miles from the Ohakia Air Force Base. The President’s white and blue jet could not be accommodated in Wellington, 97 miles from this base. Mr. Johnson drew huge and enthusiastic crowds in downtown Wellington, an outpouring stimulated by the closing of schools and a general holiday spirit. But tweedy executives and shop girls in smocks and shoppers cheering, singing and waving their welcome. The President addressed the throngs with messages of good will and the common ancestry of New Zealand and the United States. Then in a formal address, while avoiding the local debate on Vietnam Mr. Johnson strongly defended his conduct of the war consistent with both ‘reason and consequence.’… ‘The war is tragic and vicious,’ he said, ‘but a necessary prelude to sustained development of independent and secure Asian nations.’ Though he ‘prefers peace to war,’ he said, ‘he sees no acceptable alternative now. When we succeed, and we shall succeed,’ he promised,’ we shall begin a nobler war against man’s ancient enemies–hunger, ignorance and disease everywhere in Southeast Asia, including North Vietnam if its government desires.’ He added: ‘We say to the leaders of North Vietnam: a new Asia is emerging. Your people should be part of it–proud , independent and peaceful–the beneficiaries.’…”…Page 1: “Aiken Suggests U.S. Say It Has Won The War”…”Senator George Aiken of Vermont made a ‘far-fetched proposal’ today in achieving peace in Vietnam: …’ that the United States declare that it has won the war. This could be followed,’ the Vermont Senator said, ‘by military de-escalation, including an end to the air attacks on North Vietnam and a regrouping of United States forces around strategic strong points. It may be a far-fetched proposal,’ said the 74-year old Republican, who is ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, ‘but nothing else has worked.’…”…

Page 1: “Mao Dispute With Rivals Believed Near New Crisis”…”The struggle for power between supporters of Mao Tse-tung and Lin Piao and their opponents is mounting to a new climax, analysts here (Hong King) believe.Despite the purges in the last year, supporters of Mao appear to be meeting continued resistance within the policy-making councils of the Chinese Communist Party.”… Page 1: “Cabinet Rupture Is Delayed By Ky”…”Premier Nguyen Cao Ky appeared tonight to have dampened down a cabinet crisis that threatened to embarrass his regime just before the Manila conference. Two of the dissident Cabinet members have withdrawn their resignations and the remaining five have agreed to stay on until after the Manila conference in late October.”…

Page 1: “250 Negroes Riot and Beat Teachers; Oakland School Shut”…”Some 250 young Negroes including many nonstudents ran wild at Oakland’s Castlemount High School today. They beat five white teachers and three white students and forced the 2,700-student school to close early. The police later broke up a gang of Negro youths who looted a food market not far away. In late afternoon the police dispersed roving bands of raiders who smashed some store windows in a 10-block stretch along East 14th street. The police, mostly in cars and armed with shotguns and carbines, patrolled the streets. In the two hour disturbance at Castlemount, a predominantly Negro school, windows were broken, missiles thrown and cafeteria tables upset. Truants and nonstudents scaled the school fences and charged into the cafeteria lunch hour to get the riot started.”… Page 1: “City Acts To Aid ghetto Schools”…”The School Board of Education of New York announced yesterday that it would set up a city-wide ‘task force’ of educators, public officials and community leaders to help improve education in Ghetto schools in New York. At the same time the board disclosed details on its plan for giving Harlem parents a voice in the operation of the controversial Intermediate School 201. In a 2,200 word statement the board said it agreed with Harlem representatives who felt that ‘bold new steps must be taken to upgrade education in defacto segregated schools and that increased community participation is essential in the end.’…”

Page 13: “Ex-Pilot In Vietnam Accuses Pentagon Of Deception War”…”A former Navy pilot in Vietnam says that many officers feel the war is being run by ‘uniformed potential voters who want a quiet war, one that will not make hardships for them at home.’ He also accuses the Pentagon of deceptions, denials, and prevarications that contradict the true situation. ‘Your true patriots are there trying to fight a war.’ The pilot who is a former Navy Lieutenant made his comments in a letter to Representative William Menshall, Republican-Ohio.”… Page 13: “3 Fliers Capture Related By Hanoi”…”North Vietnam’s official news agency gave additional details on the capture of three American pilots downed in August and September. The news agency also released pictures of the three: Captain Donald Glenn Waltman from Idaho, whose F-105 from Korat was shot down on 19 September; LTJG Hubert E. Buchanan, from Indiana, who was shot down by a MIG on 19 September: and, Captain Norman Wells who was shot down on August 31.”…

20 OCTOBER 1966… OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER… New York Times… No report on air war in North for 20 Oct… “Vietnam: Air Losses” (Hobson) Five U.S. fixed wing aircraft lost in Southeast Asia on 20 October 1966…

(1) MAJOR I. BRECKENRIDGE and 1LT E. MERRICK were flying an F-4C of the 433rd TFS and 8th TFW out of Ubon on a Steel Tiger armed reconnaissance mission when downed by ground fire on their second run on a truck park near Ban Kang in southern Laos. they ejected safely and a SAR task force was summoned. Here is Chris Hobson’s report on the Rescue operation: (page 78) “A SAR force arrived and Jolly Green an HH-3E flown by Major Youngblood of the 38th ARRS, dropped its hoist for one of the survivors. As the survivor was being reeled into the helicopter it was hit repeatedly by ground fire and had to make an emergency landing in a field about a mile away. CAPTAIN LELAND KENNEDY in the second HH-3E landed next to Youngblood‘s helicopter and took its crew and the Phantom pilot on board before resuming his search for the second Phantom crewman. He was spotted hanging from a tree by an O-1 FAC and MAJOR KENNEDY picked him up under intense small arms fire from enemy troops. The downed HH-3 was destroyed to prevent it from falling into enemy hands.”  CAPTAIN KENNEDY was subsequently awarded his second Air Force Cross for his courageous performance on this mission. See RTR for 5 October 1966 for CAPTAIN KENNEDY’s earlier show stopper… oohrah…  (Two AFCs in 15 days)!!!       and related….

(2) CAPTAIN DAVID RAYMOND WAGENER was flying an A-1H of the 602nd ACS and 14th ACW out of Udorn with the SAR task force responding to the rescue of two downed F-4 pilots (see Breckenridge and Merrick in 1. above). CAPTAIN WAGENER was supporting the two HH-3s that made the pickups and while orbiting the scene his aircraft was hit by small arms fire and his aircraft fell off on a wing and went into the ground with no apparent attempt to fly the aircraft or eject. CAPTAIN WAGENER was Killed in Action and perished on a mission of mercy fifty years ago today… He rests in peace…     left behind?…

(3) LTJG FREDERICK RAYMOND PURRINGTON was flying an A-4C of the VA-172 Blue Bolts embarked in USS Franklin D. Roosevelt on an armed reconnaissance mission in the area south of Thanh Hoa. The flight took several barges five miles south of Thanh Hoa under attack. LTJG PURRINGTON’s Skyhawk was hit in the engine section and as the cockpit filled with smoke LTJG PURRINGTON was forced to eject on his 29th mission in extremely hostile country. He was captured immediately and was interned as a POW until 18 February 1973. He returned to duty, including an assignment flying A-6Es in VA-35 under my command in Carrier Air Wing THREE on USS Saratoga in 1976. He retired from the Navy in the rank of Captain….oohrah, Fred…

(4) LTJG HARRY SANFORD EDWARDS was flying an A-4C of the VA 153 Blue Tail Flies embarked in USS Constellation on a mini-Alpha (a dozen or so attack aircraft with some support) on a bridge five miles southeast of Nam Dinh. His flight leader observed LTJG EDWARDS make his 45-degree dive on the target, release his bombs and continue to fly into the ground a few hundred yards from the target. The young Naval Aviator is thought to have fixed on the target and failed to pull out of his fatal dive. LTJG EDWARDS was Killed in Action on the attack with little regard for his own safety, so intent was his desire to accomplish his mission. His remains were returned to the United States in 1996. He is home…

(5)  CAPTAIN CHARLES EHNSTROM TOFFERI was flying an F-104C of the 435th TFS and 8th TFW out of Udorn was shot down on an armed reconnaissance mission over the Plain of Jars in Laos. His aircraft was struck in the fuselage by ground fire as he pulled up from an attack. His aircraft was observed to crash without an ejection or voice call. CAPTAIN TOFFERI was Killed in Action fifty years ago this day. He died carrying the fight to the enemy. The record is not clear where CAPTAIN TOFFERI’s final resting place is…left behind?…

RIPPLE SALVO… #232… “OUR PILOTS CALL HANOI DODGE CITY” (PART III) by Sam Butz, New York Times…6 Oct 1966…I quote..

Military men the world over have followed the air war in Vietnam closely with one question in mind above all: how effective would SAM missiles be in acual combat as compared with their scores on gunnery ranges in peacetime?

On the range, scores have been very high, sometimes near 100%–about one aircraft down for every missile fired. Pentagon theoreticians and others who study war by fighting mock battles with computers had estimated that in actual combat missile performance would drop off but still be near 50%–that is, if 100 aircraft attacked a properly defended area would all be shot down if 200 missiles were fired at them. If such performance estimates were proved correct, the manned aircraft was absolutely through in conventional wars using high explosive iron bombs. No nation could bear such attrition, it’s air forces would die quickly. Only in nuclear engagements would extremely heavy losses be acceptable, for each aircraft would then be carrying weapons more powerful than all the bombs dropped in World War II and it should matter if only a few reached the target.

Vietnam has proved the SAM estimates to be substantially incorrect. During the last six months of 1965 the military reported that approximately 150 SA-2 missiles were fired at U.S. aircraft over North Vietnam; only 10 hit their target and brought down a fighter-bomber. This is a kill rate of just over 6%–far less than most theoreticians had predicted.

During 1966 it has become Government policy not to reveal how many aircraft are lost to SAMs as that will require the enemy to keep their own score on missile effectiveness. But there is no reason to believe that the situation has changed radically.

Most Navy and Air Force fliers are confident that missiles can never achieve the very high kill ratios originally predicted. They contend that the manned fighter-bomber is so fast, maneuverable and versatile that it will be useful for the foreseeable future.

The missile however is far from discredited. Although it has not doomed manned aircrarft in a short spectacular campaign, as many predicted, it spells serious trouble in a war of attrition–as the air war in North Vietnam is turning out to be.

The SA-2 though over-rated, is by far the most deadly anti-aircraft weapon ever fired from the ground. The Germans by comparison had to expend 8,500 88mm flak rounds to bring down one U.S heavy bomber. Over-optimism in air defense planning did not begin in the missile era. German scientists at the beginning of World War II predicted that one bomber would be bagged for every 100 88mm shells fired.

The missile era then is off to a creditable start. The SA-2 is generally regarded as the most primitive type of SAM in operation today. It is 10 to 15 years old and has a command guidance system, no onboard ‘intelligence.’ Operators on the ground, assisted by computers, constantly command and steer it on a collision course with the target aircraft. To do this the operators need radars to track both the target aircraft and the SA-2. If the ground radars lose either, the intercept is busted and the missile is wasted.

U.S. pilots have evaded the SA-2 by diving down low so the radars lose track of them. This has been possible even though North Vietnam is fairly mountainous and offers many fine radar locations for looking down on low flying aircraft. Many radar sets are needed, however, to c0ver all the valleys and other blind spots on the approach routes to the targets in the Red River delta. According to current reports, the North Vietnamese are beefing up their positioning of defenses to eliminate this weakness.

Most advanced SAMs are more maneuverable than SA-2s, carry their own guidance system and are thus relatively free of restrictions of ground control. On these advanced SAMs ground operators control the launch and early guidance, then they give up control to a miniaturized computer…such missiles are as effective at low altitudes as well as high and will undoubtedly have a higher probability of kill. Perhaps 12%. Current U.S loss rates in Vietnam are 1% with the 8th Air Force encountering a high of 5% (operating in the Red River Valley).

The North Vietnamese defense record of 1965 however shows that it is producing about the same results as the best defenses of World War II. Last year the Navy and Air Force flew approximately 26,000 sorties over North Vietnam and lost 170 aircraft. This is a loss rate of about 2/3rds of 1%, or about 1 in 150… Currently, in October 1966 the U.S. is losing about one aircraft a day to enemy fire in North Vietnam-a big change from a year ago. The quality of the defense is also improving. Last month seven aircraft were shot down in one day, and the press is now reporting that salvos of 6 or 8 missiles are being fired in attempts to increase kill ratios.

Mobility and flexibility are key features of the North Vietnamese air defense system that integrates communications, radar, cannons, missiles and fighters…control of the defense system is at a central location and includes early warning radars to give the alarm, acquisition and tracking radars to link to computers that fix targets and provide data–altitudes, speeds, courses and positions. these are passed to batteries in the vicinity of targets. Most often 57 and 87 mm guns are trained and fired automatically using computer data.

Secretary McNamara recently reported to the congress that our overall air losses, combat and non-combat in both North and South Vietnam are below his office’s predictions. The implication was that the North Vietnamese defenses are not doing as well as expected. However, complacency is not in order. The Communist defense is formidable and appears to be getting stronger rather than weakening. It could still raise U.S. air war costs to an unacceptable level… un quote…

Humble Host points out that the replacement aircraft order for 1967 by DOD is 580 new aircraft… (we will need every one of them)… Dear Readers, I apologize for the extraordinary length of the Sam Butz article. I present it here in RTR as indicative of the media words the American people were being provided while we were “on the line.” Imagine, if you will how important an article like this was to our families and friends, who also served as they supported us. My father sent me this article as I prepared to take my turn with VA-113 in Enterprise…

Lest we forget…     Bear              ……….  –30–  ……….